Incarnate's WunderBlog

As the eyes of many begin to focus their attentions on Gustav, I thought I would share my thoughts on what has become an unfortunate trend in hurricane prediction.

The term "doomcasting" has been applied to predictions on global warming, but to my knowledge, it has never really been used to describe hurricane forecasting. What a pity, because that is exactly what it has become. Fueled, in no small part mind you, by the cronies at Colorado State University who crawl from their bomb shelters each spring to prognosticate on the impending doom that awaits all of us that are unfortunate enough to live in hurricane prone areas. Dr. Gray and his team of prophets` contribution to the mass panic that is already beginning to grip my area of the Gulf Coast is significant, however, it pales in comparison to the effects of the mainstream media, in particular, The Weather Channel, who latch onto Dr. Gray`s forecast like a leech and then salivate until another Katrina begins to take shape somewhere in the ITCZ.

No matter how much I appreciate the information provided by the Weather Underground, I am sad to say that even it is not exempt from accusations of "doomcasting". I can easily recall the numerous blogs posted here about TS Fay and what havoc it was bound to create as it prepared to rip into the Florida peninsula and take countless numbers of innocent victims with it. These predictions were with the earlier forecast track, you know, before it decided to take an about face to the West, which was mentioned absolutely nowhere in the earlier model runs or official forecast track. In all 14 people died in Florida...one person died while swimming of all things, three people died in traffic accidents, one person electrocuted while doing repairs...the others...who knows, but rest assured they did not die because of the sheer power of the storm. The main event......RAIN. Not wind, not surge, not pestilence, not locusts, just good ole rain. A far cry from the doom and gloom that was most assuredly supposed to befall the unfortunate citizens of Florida. Coming from someone who has ridden out the likes of Frederic, Elena, Erin, Danny, Georges, Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina,...Fay was nothing more than a fart in the wind, already forgotten along with the countless other named storms that never lived up to their promise of certain death for anyone caught in their paths.

Already we are seeing "doomcasting" in full swing on most major networks and, of course, that bastion of forecasting excellence...The Weather Channel. As we have 'up to the minute" forecasts shoved down our throats incessantly, we come here for more info and are treated to this: "Gustav pulls away from Hispaniola after killing at least 22". Does this kind of headline affect us in a negative way? You bet it does. Anyone with just a miniscule amount of intelligence knows that people are going to die in Hispaniola when a tropical system of even the lowest caliber comes through. This is what happens when you live in a mud-hut at the base of a mud covered mountain that rises from the ground ten feet from a raging river. This kind of alarmist, attention-grabbing headline serves no purpose other than to keep the pestilence cloud on the horizon growing ever taller while we all await the same fate as those unfortunate souls in Hispaniola.

This blog is not intended to diminish the importance or relevance of a single, solitary life that has ever been lost as a result of a hurricane. It is, on the other hand, intended to proclaim that the multitudes of us that live every summer with hurricanes in our lives and have survived countless numbers of storms have done so by way of our wits and healthy doses of common sense. As I write this entry, I am already being bombarded by dire predictions, storm tracks, computer models, water temps, currents, lower level troughs, and God knows what else. This, in turn, has begun to send the masses to stock up, or rather, hoard gas as the price begins to skyrocket once again. Home Depot and Lowes will begin to get out of the red, and then some, on plywood sales and portable generators. Good luck finding any batteries at Wal-Mart. This is a state of fear. It is also complteley irrational. "Doomcasting" perpetuates this state of fear and for no good reason either.

I believe that the National Hurricane Center gives clear and concise data to the general public, and for that I am thankful. They are not to blame for "doomcasting". It is the agencies that they send their data to that amplify said data into a prophetic message of doom and paranoia that is to blame. This is the mainstream media in general, The Weather Channel, and yes...The Weather Underground. As we enter the crux of another hurricane season, I implore those of you with authority that may happen to read this blog to please be wary of "doomcasting". Those of us who have survived hurricanes time and time again are getting tired of seeing our own deaths on the horizon.